Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
